UK Wheat Supply Faces Challenges

Forecasted availability declines despite higher imports and stocks

{reg}The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has released its second estimate of UK wheat supply and demand for the 2024/25 season. The report projects total wheat availability at 16.883 megatons, an increase of 95 kilotons from November’s estimate but a decline of 1.486 megatons compared to last year.

Wheat production is now expected to reach 11.146 megatons, 95 kilotons higher than the previous forecast but 2.834 megatons lower than in 2023. Imports are forecasted at 2.750 megatons, an increase of 313 kilotons year-on-year. The UK imported 1.449 megatons of wheat from July to November, with the import pace expected to slow as stocks have been front-loaded. Feed wheat consumption is estimated at 6.464 megatons, down 667 kilotons from 2023/24 levels due to reduced farm usage and lower demand from the bioethanol sector. Full-season wheat exports are projected at 175 kilotons, with 51.6 kilotons already shipped.

The UK’s exit from the EU continues to affect the wheat market, particularly regarding bioethanol production. Milling wheat usage is slightly lower, with increased imports contributing to changes in extraction rates. Commercial stocks are forecasted at 2.708 megatons, higher than the five-year average but lower than last season. With 1.282 megatons of wheat available for export or carry-over, market dynamics remain uncertain heading into the next season. {reg}