Global gray cement export prices to remain elevated in 1Q2023

• The global CW price index for gray cement exports is forecast to increase almost 1 percent quarter-on-quarter in 1Q2023
• The Middle East region expected to see a decline in prices
• North America and the Caribbean to lead the CW price index for gray cement exports

Greenwich (CT), USA, February 15, 2023 – The global CW price index for gray cement exports is forecast to increase nearly 1 percent quarter-on-quarter in 1Q2023. The Middle East is the only region projected to see a decline in prices, while Asia-Pacific-Japan is expected to witness the highest increase, according to the 4Q2022 update of the CW Research's Global Cement Trade Price Report (GCTPR).

"Gray cement export prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory albeit at a slower place than previous quarters. On-going geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, stubborn inflation, and high energy prices continue to weigh on logistics and production costs", explained Lucas Pimenta, Junior Business Analyst at CW Group.

Middle East to see decrease in export prices until March

The CW price index for gray cement exports in the Middle East is forecast to marginally decrease by less than 0.5 percent. The region has been the least affected by geopolitical events, including the conflict in Ukraine impacting other regional markets.

Saudi Arabia´s export prices are forecast to decline nearly 1 percent quarter-on-quarter, while Pakistan is expected to see a marginal rise. Nevertheless, the region is still projected to have the lowest regional gray cement FOB price in 1Q2023.

Japan to lead increase in prices in the region

Asia-Pacific-Japan is forecast to see a rise of around 1.5 percent in the regional CW price index for gray cement exports. Japan is expected to see an increase of almost 3 percent, while China is forecast to see an increase of around 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter. Taiwan is on track to see a decline of nearly 2 percent.

North America and the Caribbean with the highest CW price index for gray cement exports in 1Q2023

In North America and the Caribbean, gray cement export prices are estimated to increase by 1 percent compared to January. Following the trend of the previous quarters, the region is forecast to have the highest CW price index for gray cement export prices.

In the Mediterranean Basin, Italy is forecast to have both the highest gray cement FOB prices and the largest rise in export prices, with an increase of around 2 percent. Portugal is projected to see a marginal drop of less than half a percent.

Sanctions on Russia impacting Germany´s cementitious industry

In Western Europe, Germany is forecast to see the highest increase in cement export prices by March 2023, with an increase of more than 1.5 percent as sanctions on Russian energy supplies continue to negatively impact Europe's largest economy. France, meanwhile, is expected to see a drop of nearly 1 percent.

In Eastern Europe, Bulgaria is set to report the largest increase, at around 2 percent, while Russia is on track for a 0.5 percent rise in cement export prices. Slovenia is expected to post a drop of nearly 3 percent.

The Global Cement Trade Price Report is CW Research's benchmark price assessment for monthly gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated blast furnace slag prices and volumes. The 150+ page report, published on a quarterly basis, serves as the industry go-to source for monthly price data for over 70 individual markets worldwide, including multiple cornerstone data series: import, export, ex-works and market prices.

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